KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

EPSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.45u · EPS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	20.0%	0.4%	11.1%	11.2%	11.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	20.2%	0.4%	11.2%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	11.2%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	11.2%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	11.2%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	11.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	10.5%	11.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	10.5%	18.0%	35.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	11.6%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	9.4%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	9.4%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	16.5%	0.5%	9.4%	18.1%	35.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	9.4%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	9.4%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	9.4%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	9.4%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	9.4%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	4.5%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	4.5%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	4.5%	11.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	4.5%	11.3%	22.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	8.6%	0.4%	4.6%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.6%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.6%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	5.5%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	5.5%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	5.5%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	5.5%	11.0%	22.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	5.2%	0.3%	5.5%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	5.2%	0.3%	5.5%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	5.2%	0.3%	5.5%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	5.2%	0.3%	5.5%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.0%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.8%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.8%	6.3%	13.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	3.8%	6.3%	13.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	14%	81.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗