KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

50%

49%

44%

40%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.3¢Risks 23.65u

EPSNO 52.7¢Risks 26.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.35u · EPS −26.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	70.5%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	2.7%	61.3%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	29.8%	59.1%	3.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	47.1%	54.4%	30.4%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	33.0%	47.7%	12.9%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	34.5%	38.2%	16.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	1.8%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	27.2%	41.7%	12.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	30.3%	41.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	41.3%	43.0%	10.1%	20.8%	31.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	82.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	81.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	81.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗