KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

48%

48%

41%

26%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

EPSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.20u · EPS −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	64.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	1.8%	54.7%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	24.1%	52.1%	2.1%	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	39.9%	47.1%	24.3%	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	26.4%	40.2%	9.3%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	27.4%	30.9%	11.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	1.0%	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	20.7%	33.8%	8.3%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	23.3%	33.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	33.0%	34.6%	6.8%	15.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	34.2%	—	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	53%	82.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	82.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	81.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	80.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗