KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.0¢Risks 4.50u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.50u · EPS −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	14.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.6%	11.9%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.2%	8.7%	2.4%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	5.6%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.3%	2.9%	0.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.1%	3.0%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.3%	2.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.4%	2.7%	0.1%	0.5%	1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	82.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	81.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	77.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗