KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.0¢Risks 4.50u

EPSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.50u · EPS −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:30:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:21+00:00	14.0%	2.6%	16.5%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	14.0%	2.6%	16.5%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	14.0%	2.6%	16.5%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	14.0%	2.6%	16.5%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	14.0%	2.6%	16.5%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	14.0%	1.3%	13.2%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	14.0%	1.3%	13.2%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	14.0%	1.3%	13.2%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	13.3%	1.3%	13.2%	15.7%	6.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	13.3%	1.3%	13.2%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	13.2%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	13.2%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	14.5%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	14.5%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	14.5%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	13.3%	1.2%	14.5%	15.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	14.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	14.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	14.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	14.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	11.2%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:54+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	9.5%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	12.4%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	12.4%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	12.4%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	11.8%	1.2%	12.4%	7.0%	26.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	11.1%	1.2%	12.4%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	11.1%	1.2%	12.4%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	11.1%	1.2%	12.4%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	11.1%	1.2%	12.4%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	10.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	10.1%	0.3%	7.3%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	7.3%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	7.3%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	6.4%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	6.4%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	6.4%	7.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	6.4%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	6.4%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	6.4%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	6.4%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	6.4%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:39+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	5.9%	3.7%	17.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	82.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	81.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	77.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗