KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

81%

67%

64%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 22.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.35u · HRES −22.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	76.3%	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	73.2%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	18.0%	75.1%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	59.1%	70.8%	14.9%	—	52.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	31.0%	62.3%	23.7%	—	54.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	35.8%	51.5%	16.9%	—	44.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	50.0%	61.8%	28.8%	58.7%	55.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	51.6%	—	—	55.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	80.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	79.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗