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KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
86%
AIFS
81%
ICON
67%
HRES
64%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 77.6¢Risks 77.65u
VS
HRESNO 22.4¢Risks 22.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.35u · HRES −22.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:0079.8%86.9%78.0%34.7%59.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0079.8%86.9%78.0%34.7%59.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0079.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%59.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0079.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%59.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0079.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%59.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0080.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%67.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0080.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%67.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0080.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%67.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0080.8%86.9%81.0%34.7%67.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0080.8%91.1%85.8%64.2%67.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%80.0°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%80.9°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single81%80.8°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON67%79.2°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%78.6°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend32%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗