KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

30%

23%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.5¢Risks 14.77u

ICONNO 70.5¢Risks 35.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.23u · ICON −35.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	36.3%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	30.1%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.8%	30.6%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	15.8%	24.6%	1.1%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	3.8%	16.5%	2.3%	—	12.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	4.4%	9.7%	1.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	8.1%	13.6%	2.5%	11.9%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	8.2%	—	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	81.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	81.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	75.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗