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KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
8%
WN2
8%
AIFS
6%
HRES
5%
EPS
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.3¢Risks 1.31u
VS
EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 23.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.69u · EPS −23.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-10 06:0010-15 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.3%————1.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.4%————1.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.8%————5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.5%————6.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————8.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.7%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.4%————7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0012.3%————5.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0013.3%————6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0013.5%————11.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.7%—3.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0020.1%————10.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0018.1%—————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:007.9%————12.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—2.6%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.3%—10.3%——12.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.2%—2.4%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.1%————6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.9%—8.9%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.1%—6.7%——3.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.2%—4.2%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.9%0.1%6.4%——2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.4%—2.2%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.4%2.0%4.0%0.0%—1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.8%—1.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.2%1.9%0.1%—1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.2%—0.8%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.2%0.7%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.9%—0.9%———
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.5%1.1%0.1%0.9%0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.9%—0.4%——0.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON8%75.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%81.7°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single6%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend5%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%78.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%81.4°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗