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KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
8%
WN2
8%
AIFS
6%
HRES
5%
EPS
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.3¢Risks 1.31u
VS
EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 23.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.69u · EPS −23.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:006.3%2.1%7.7%4.7%8.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:006.3%2.1%7.7%4.7%8.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:006.3%2.1%7.7%4.7%8.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:006.3%2.1%7.7%4.7%8.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON8%75.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%81.7°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single6%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend5%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%78.7°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%81.4°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗