KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

71%

70%

57%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

HRESNO 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.80u · HRES −31.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	28.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	3.1%	51.3%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	48.6%	40.3%	8.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	52.2%	70.3%	27.2%	51.5%	54.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	80.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	78.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	80.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	77.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗