KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

71%

70%

57%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

HRESNO 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.80u · HRES −31.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00	76.8%	75.4%	78.9%	31.5%	67.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	76.8%	75.4%	78.9%	31.5%	67.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	76.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	67.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	76.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	67.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	76.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	67.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	69.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	69.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	69.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	69.8%	75.4%	80.6%	31.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	79.8%	56.6%	70.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	80.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	78.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	80.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	77.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗