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KMEM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
WN2
77%
HRES
74%
AIFS
64%
ICON
39%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.10u
VS
ICONNO 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.90u · ICON −41.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 52.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.4%———10.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0040.0%———47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0026.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0036.9%———29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0011.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0021.2%———36.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0015.2%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0056.4%———46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0045.8%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0024.8%———44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0060.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0071.2%———56.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0055.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0063.1%———61.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0072.1%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0075.7%———63.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0065.8%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0051.6%———59.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0052.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0043.8%———50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0052.9%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0051.8%—64.9%—58.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0059.5%—65.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0056.0%———56.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0056.8%—22.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0060.6%—62.4%—48.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0060.7%—65.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0056.5%—22.1%—50.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0046.7%—21.2%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0040.0%10.2%34.2%52.7%54.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0041.8%—30.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble78%78.7°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 277%80.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES74%80.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single64%78.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%77.0°F8.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON39%73.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗