KMEM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

40%

30%

22%

18%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.00u · EPS −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	36.2%	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	36.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	6.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	31.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	34.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	5.7%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	5.2%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	1.7%	10.5%	21.8%	22.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	8.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	44%	80.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	80.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	78.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	73.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	77.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	78.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗