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KMEM / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
44%
WN2
40%
AIFS
30%
ICON
22%
EPS
18%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u
VS
EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.00u · EPS −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:31+00:0030.1%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0030.1%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0030.1%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0030.1%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0030.0%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:0030.0%17.6%39.9%44.4%21.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES44%80.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 240%80.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single30%78.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON22%73.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend21%77.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%78.8°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗