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KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
WN2
70%
AIFS
62%
ICON
61%
HRES
41%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u
VS
HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.45u · HRES −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.2% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:00ICON: 60.8% · 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 17:4310-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:06+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:0066.7%92.5%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T12:23:17+00:0066.7%95.2%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:0066.7%95.2%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:0065.4%95.2%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:0065.4%95.2%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:0065.4%95.8%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:0065.4%95.8%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:0065.4%95.8%64.0%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:0065.4%95.8%70.1%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:0065.4%95.8%70.1%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:0065.4%95.8%70.1%46.2%52.4%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-09T21:29:14+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:0060.6%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-10T02:00:43+00:0062.0%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-10T02:46:08+00:0062.0%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:0062.0%95.8%70.1%41.3%60.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%90.1°F1.5°F2026-10-09 00:000.0018
WeatherNext 270%90.1°F4.9°F2026-10-09 06:000.0894
AIFS Single62%89.2°F5.6°F2026-10-09 18:000.1444
ICON61%90.2°F9.8°F2026-10-09 12:000.1537
National Blend59%88.0°F2.2°F2026-10-09 06:000.1681
IFS HRES41%86.1°F6.3°F2026-10-09 12:000.3446

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 88°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗