KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

70%

62%

61%

41%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.45u · HRES −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	19.7%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	44.4%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	26.0%	48.6%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	38.2%	51.4%	25.7%	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	42.7%	55.1%	21.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	41.7%	59.8%	50.8%	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	19.5%	50.0%	21.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	14.4%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	40.9%	62.3%	41.7%	—	32.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	52.6%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	45.6%	67.0%	66.2%	—	37.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	50.0%	71.3%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	47.2%	73.4%	49.1%	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	51.9%	71.6%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	50.0%	72.9%	60.6%	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	64.7%	72.6%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	56.1%	75.7%	43.9%	—	39.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	51.1%	76.3%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	77.8%	61.8%	—	34.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	52.2%	79.4%	9.2%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	58.1%	74.0%	57.0%	64.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	57.2%	77.5%	71.7%	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	48.8%	77.3%	68.0%	68.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	62.7%	79.1%	65.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	54.0%	79.0%	50.0%	58.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	82.7%	52.8%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	62.8%	85.4%	69.5%	42.8%	38.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	36.6%	82.8%	48.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	23.8%	87.5%	71.0%	69.7%	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	40.2%	89.3%	71.9%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	90.1°F	1.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.0018
WeatherNext 2	70%	90.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.0894
AIFS Single	62%	89.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.1444
ICON	61%	90.2°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.1537
National Blend	59%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	41%	86.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.3446

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 88°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗