KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

54%

51%

48%

17%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

ICONNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.60u · ICON −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	63.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	12.6%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	32.4%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	16.3%	35.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	25.7%	37.6%	15.8%	—	24.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	29.1%	40.6%	12.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	27.7%	44.7%	35.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	10.4%	34.5%	11.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	7.0%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	25.8%	45.8%	26.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	35.8%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	29.1%	50.0%	49.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	32.6%	54.5%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	29.7%	56.4%	31.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	33.5%	53.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	31.3%	54.9%	41.3%	—	21.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	45.0%	54.0%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	35.9%	57.2%	25.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.7%	57.4%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	29.2%	58.7%	40.3%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	30.5%	60.0%	2.9%	—	16.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	35.2%	52.3%	34.1%	41.9%	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	33.6%	56.0%	48.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	25.6%	55.0%	43.8%	43.8%	17.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	37.3%	56.4%	39.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	28.4%	55.4%	25.1%	31.9%	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	24.2%	59.7%	26.5%	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	34.5%	62.8%	41.4%	18.2%	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	13.6%	57.5%	21.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	6.6%	63.9%	40.6%	39.1%	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.1%	66.1%	40.2%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0615
National Blend	67%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1076
IFS Ensemble	62%	90.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1475
AIFS Single	54%	89.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2125
IFS HRES	51%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2391
WeatherNext 2	48%	89.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2663
ICON	17%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6856

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗