KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

40%

38%

33%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.05u · ICON −74.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	27.0%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	25.2%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	12.4%	29.4%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	20.4%	31.1%	11.9%	—	19.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	23.2%	33.7%	8.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	21.6%	37.2%	28.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.2%	27.4%	8.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	4.7%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	19.5%	37.7%	20.1%	—	13.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	28.1%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	22.1%	41.3%	40.5%	—	16.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	24.9%	45.5%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	22.3%	47.2%	23.7%	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	25.3%	44.3%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	23.2%	45.1%	32.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	35.3%	44.0%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	26.8%	46.9%	17.6%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	22.0%	46.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	20.6%	47.8%	30.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	21.4%	48.9%	1.5%	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	25.1%	40.8%	24.2%	31.0%	8.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	23.4%	44.0%	37.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	16.6%	42.6%	32.0%	32.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	25.9%	43.6%	28.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	18.2%	42.0%	15.7%	21.0%	8.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.7%	45.8%	16.4%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	22.2%	48.5%	28.0%	10.2%	8.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	7.0%	42.5%	12.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	2.9%	48.4%	26.3%	25.0%	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	50.0%	25.4%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3481
AIFS Single	41%	89.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	40%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1632
IFS Ensemble	38%	90.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1475
WeatherNext 2	33%	89.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1102
National Blend	33%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1076
ICON	11%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0119

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 91°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗