KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

40%

38%

33%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.95u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.05u · ICON −74.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:41+00:00	43.1%	28.7%	40.5%	39.0%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	43.1%	28.7%	40.5%	39.0%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	43.1%	28.7%	42.6%	39.0%	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	43.1%	28.7%	42.6%	39.0%	36.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	43.1%	28.7%	42.6%	39.0%	36.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	44.5%	28.7%	42.6%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	44.5%	28.7%	42.6%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	44.5%	28.7%	42.6%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	44.5%	28.7%	42.6%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	44.5%	28.7%	42.6%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	44.5%	31.4%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	44.5%	31.4%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	44.5%	31.4%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	49.1%	31.4%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	49.1%	31.4%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	37.2%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	33.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	33.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	33.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	42.9%	39.4%	33.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	49.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	47.2%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	33.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	45.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	45.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	45.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	45.1%	29.3%	44.1%	42.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	45.1%	29.3%	44.1%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:47+00:00	45.1%	29.9%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	45.1%	29.9%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	45.1%	29.9%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	43.2%	29.9%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	43.2%	29.9%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	44.9%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	50.0%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	50.0%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	43.2%	28.1%	50.0%	33.9%	17.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	50.0%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	38.4%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	33.7%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	37.4%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	37.4%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	41.3%	28.1%	37.4%	17.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	37.4%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	37.4%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	37.4%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	37.4%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	37.4%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	40.0%	28.1%	34.1%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	40.0%	41.9%	34.1%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	40.0%	41.9%	34.1%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	40.0%	41.9%	34.1%	29.5%	11.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	40.0%	42.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	40.0%	40.1%	32.8%	29.5%	10.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	32.8%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	32.8%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	32.8%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	32.8%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	42.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	34.0%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	12.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	41.0%	40.1%	22.5%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	41.0%	38.4%	33.2%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	41.0%	38.4%	33.2%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	41.0%	38.4%	33.2%	40.4%	10.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	41.0%	38.4%	33.2%	40.4%	10.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3481
AIFS Single	41%	89.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1681
IFS HRES	40%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1632
IFS Ensemble	38%	90.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1475
WeatherNext 2	33%	89.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1102
National Blend	33%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1076
ICON	11%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0119

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 91°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗