KMIA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

29%

25%

14%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.3¢Risks 21.25u

ICONNO 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.75u · ICON −78.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	20.5%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	14.3%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	38.8%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	15.9%	53.4%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	28.6%	18.9%	23.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	22.6%	23.7%	—	19.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	29.6%	35.1%	17.9%	—	14.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	25.5%	33.0%	14.5%	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	11.0%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	20.1%	36.9%	25.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	19.6%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	17.2%	34.6%	14.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	15.0%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	22.3%	45.4%	28.2%	—	16.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	27.6%	48.1%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	30.4%	56.8%	48.0%	—	14.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	26.5%	63.7%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	27.6%	71.5%	47.9%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	16.9%	13.8%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	14.9%	11.9%	44.5%	4.5%	9.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	28.6%	14.1%	4.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	7.2%	18.3%	44.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	9.7%	33.6%	19.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	18.2%	53.7%	33.1%	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.3%	36.1%	26.9%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	47.3%	35.6%	4.0%	4.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	13.2%	80.9%	13.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	17.2%	80.9%	10.2%	13.0%	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.2%	60.5%	23.6%	—	2.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	33.1%	69.7%	17.1%	18.1%	4.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	70.5%	2.8%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	34%	88.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4382
AIFS Single	32%	87.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4570
IFS Ensemble	29%	88.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5027
WeatherNext 2	25%	87.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5685
IFS HRES	14%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7482
ICON	10%	85.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.8082

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗