KMIA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

29%

25%

14%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.3¢Risks 21.25u

ICONNO 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.75u · ICON −78.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:10+00:00	23.6%	45.6%	40.4%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	23.6%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	23.6%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	23.6%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:11+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:43+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	38.0%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	36.5%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	36.5%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	30.1%	45.6%	36.5%	31.8%	55.3%
2026-10-11T07:31:52+00:00	28.5%	45.6%	36.5%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	28.5%	45.6%	36.5%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	28.5%	45.6%	36.5%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	28.5%	45.6%	36.5%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:43+00:00	28.5%	45.6%	36.5%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	28.5%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	28.5%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	28.5%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:42+00:00	27.2%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	37.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	29.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	29.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	26.6%	26.4%	29.9%	35.7%	55.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	29.9%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	29.9%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	29.9%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	29.9%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	29.9%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	30.5%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	35.4%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	38.8%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	38.8%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	44.7%	26.4%	38.8%	34.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:06+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	38.8%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	38.8%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	38.8%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	38.8%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	38.8%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	45.9%	26.4%	41.2%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	45.9%	28.7%	41.2%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	45.9%	28.7%	41.2%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	38.0%	28.7%	41.2%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	38.0%	28.7%	41.3%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	38.0%	28.7%	41.3%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	41.3%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	41.3%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	23.3%	45.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	33.0%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	38.0%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:43+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	37.5%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	32.1%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	32.1%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	27.7%	27.4%	32.1%	32.0%	40.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	32.1%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	32.1%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	32.1%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	32.1%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	23.0%	27.4%	32.1%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	23.0%	24.6%	24.3%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	23.0%	24.6%	24.3%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	23.0%	24.6%	24.3%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	24.2%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	24.2%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	24.2%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	24.2%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	28.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	28.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	36.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	36.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	36.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	29.5%	28.8%	36.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	31.6%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	36.4%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	27.3%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	27.3%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	27.3%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	27.3%	24.6%	28.6%	36.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	27.3%	24.6%	28.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:47+00:00	27.3%	36.5%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	27.3%	36.5%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	27.3%	36.5%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	32.9%	36.5%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	32.9%	36.9%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	27.6%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	25.7%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	25.7%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	32.9%	36.6%	25.7%	23.7%	36.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	31.2%	36.6%	25.7%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	31.2%	36.6%	25.7%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	31.2%	36.6%	25.7%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	31.2%	36.6%	25.7%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	31.2%	36.6%	25.7%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	31.2%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	31.2%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	31.2%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	27.6%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	20.3%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	20.3%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	28.0%	36.5%	20.3%	36.0%	34.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	20.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	20.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	20.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	20.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	20.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	27.8%	36.5%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	18.3%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	17.5%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	17.5%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	17.5%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	27.8%	33.7%	17.5%	29.6%	12.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	17.5%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	17.5%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	17.5%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	17.5%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	31.2%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	22.9%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	26.1%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	6.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	24.0%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	24.0%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	24.0%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	24.0%	33.7%	14.4%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	24.0%	30.0%	12.8%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	24.0%	30.0%	12.8%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	24.0%	30.0%	12.8%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	24.0%	30.0%	12.8%	24.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	26.3%	30.0%	12.8%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	12.8%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	12.8%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	12.8%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	26.3%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	17.7%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	17.7%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	27.2%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	22.5%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	24.6%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	24.6%	13.5%	10.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	32.4%	29.1%	24.6%	13.5%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
National Blend	34%	88.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4382
AIFS Single	32%	87.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4570
IFS Ensemble	29%	88.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5027
WeatherNext 2	25%	87.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5685
IFS HRES	14%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7482
ICON	10%	85.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.8082

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗