KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

54%

45%

40%

31%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

HRESNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · HRES −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	47.0%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	84.7%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	33.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	43.0%	19.9%	46.5%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	55.8%	49.3%	33.0%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	53.0%	46.2%	34.4%	—	42.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	37.5%	46.0%	39.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	37.2%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	33.0%	75.5%	29.3%	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	32.6%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	39.6%	55.2%	60.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	36.8%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	28.2%	31.4%	62.7%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	32.6%	37.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	32.1%	32.1%	37.6%	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	45.9%	25.1%	42.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	40.6%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	52.2%	20.6%	21.3%	—	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	34.6%	23.1%	5.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	30.0%	23.3%	18.3%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	41.6%	28.3%	22.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	48.8%	23.6%	10.6%	27.6%	21.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	55.1%	16.6%	30.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	55.4%	24.0%	30.7%	1.3%	16.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	55.6%	43.1%	20.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	47.1%	25.6%	16.3%	1.3%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	38.1%	42.5%	20.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	34.6%	65.4%	51.6%	5.2%	25.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	29.5%	66.1%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	85.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	83.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	82.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗