KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

61%

60%

57%

56%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

WN2NO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.95u · WN2 −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:52+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.5%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.5%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.5%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.5%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:43+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.5%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	39.4%	96.8%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:42+00:00	36.0%	96.8%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	36.0%	96.8%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	36.0%	97.7%	54.8%	48.7%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	54.8%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	54.8%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	54.8%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	54.8%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	54.8%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	51.4%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	57.1%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	57.1%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	57.1%	97.7%	56.4%	61.2%	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	88.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	86.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	87.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	85.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗