KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

61%

60%

57%

56%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

WN2NO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.95u · WN2 −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	41.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	80.7%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	15.5%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	36.2%	15.3%	39.6%	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	48.5%	42.0%	26.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	45.4%	38.7%	27.7%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	30.1%	38.2%	32.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	29.7%	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	25.8%	68.5%	22.5%	—	28.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	25.3%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	31.4%	46.5%	51.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	28.7%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	20.9%	23.7%	53.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	24.6%	28.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	24.0%	24.0%	28.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	18.3%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	35.9%	17.6%	33.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	30.7%	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	41.3%	13.7%	14.3%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	24.9%	15.4%	2.9%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	20.7%	15.3%	11.6%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	30.4%	19.1%	14.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	36.5%	15.1%	5.9%	18.2%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	42.3%	9.8%	20.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	42.0%	14.9%	20.0%	0.5%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	41.7%	30.0%	11.8%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	33.1%	15.4%	8.9%	0.5%	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	24.8%	28.5%	11.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	21.4%	50.0%	36.1%	2.2%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.0%	50.0%	35.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	88.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	86.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	87.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	85.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗