KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.8¢Risks 1.44u

HRESNO 94.2¢Risks 23.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.56u · HRES −23.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:53+00:00	16.2%	48.1%	26.1%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	16.2%	48.1%	26.1%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	16.2%	48.1%	26.1%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	16.2%	48.1%	26.1%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	16.2%	48.1%	26.1%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	16.2%	44.0%	24.5%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	16.2%	44.0%	24.5%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	16.2%	44.0%	24.5%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:42+00:00	14.1%	44.0%	24.5%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	14.2%	44.0%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	14.2%	45.8%	24.6%	25.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	24.6%	36.4%	43.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	24.6%	36.4%	43.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	24.6%	36.4%	43.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	24.6%	36.4%	43.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	24.6%	36.4%	43.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	24.8%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	25.9%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	30.7%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	30.7%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	29.6%	45.8%	30.7%	36.4%	44.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:06+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	30.7%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	30.7%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	30.7%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	30.7%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	30.7%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	37.4%	45.8%	28.4%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	37.4%	23.5%	28.4%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	37.4%	23.5%	28.4%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	28.4%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	28.5%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	28.5%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	28.5%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	28.5%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	27.0%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	27.0%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	27.0%	28.6%	46.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	27.0%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	27.0%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	27.0%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	27.0%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	22.6%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:43+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	25.6%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	19.1%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	19.1%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	21.4%	23.5%	19.1%	18.0%	43.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	19.1%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	19.1%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	19.1%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	19.1%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	19.1%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	14.0%	5.2%	12.5%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	14.0%	5.2%	12.5%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	14.0%	5.2%	12.5%	11.9%	24.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	12.6%	11.9%	24.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	12.1%	5.2%	12.6%	11.9%	24.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	11.9%	24.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	12.1%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	12.6%	12.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.7%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	14.7%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	22.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	17.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	17.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	17.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	15.3%	17.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	12.9%	4.6%	13.7%	33.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:47+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	13.5%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	15.4%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	15.4%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	12.9%	22.0%	15.4%	33.7%	17.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	15.4%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	15.4%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	15.4%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	15.4%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	15.4%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	16.0%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	11.3%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	11.3%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	14.3%	22.0%	11.3%	13.1%	11.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	11.3%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	11.3%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	11.3%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	11.3%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	11.3%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	11.7%	22.0%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	11.7%	10.8%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	11.7%	10.8%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	10.0%	10.8%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	9.9%	11.5%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	9.9%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	9.1%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	12.6%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	7.7%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	15.2%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	11.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	11.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	11.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	11.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	11.9%	9.8%	9.6%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	11.9%	3.7%	4.7%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	11.9%	3.7%	4.7%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	11.9%	3.7%	4.7%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	11.9%	3.7%	4.7%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	4.7%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	4.7%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	4.7%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	4.7%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	9.6%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	7.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	2.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	2.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	2.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	2.6%	9.8%	2.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	2.6%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	8.1%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	8.1%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	8.1%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	8.1%	3.7%	3.1%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	8.2%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	8.2%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	8.2%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	9.0%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	3.7%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	4.3%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	4.3%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	4.3%	3.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	4.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	4.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	4.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	4.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	4.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	8.5%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	8.1%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	8.1%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	8.1%	4.5%	5.3%	3.4%	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	8%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	83.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	82.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗