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KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
8%
WN2
5%
ICON
5%
EPS
4%
HRES
3%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 5.8¢Risks 1.44u
VS
HRESNO 94.2¢Risks 23.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.56u · HRES −23.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0016.2%————10.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0030.6%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0025.2%————26.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0037.5%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0034.5%————30.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0033.5%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0033.0%————30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0028.8%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0029.2%————26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:009.1%————30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:006.8%————27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:009.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0031.1%————30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0032.0%————30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0029.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0031.5%————27.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0027.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0034.0%————29.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0030.3%————27.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:005.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:008.3%—20.1%——26.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.9%—59.3%——20.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:005.3%—21.6%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:005.1%—10.7%——21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.7%—2.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:005.0%—4.5%——17.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.8%—1.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:007.9%14.5%4.2%16.6%—15.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:009.8%—7.5%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0014.4%22.1%17.5%8.7%—17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.0%—23.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:006.0%18.9%14.6%8.7%—12.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.2%—7.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%9.3%13.6%10.4%—8.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.0%8.8%23.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.0%6.9%36.1%5.6%—8.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.3%6.4%23.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.9%8.6%16.7%20.2%—9.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.8%7.1%12.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.9%4.1%5.0%20.3%—5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.6%5.1%6.4%——4.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.2%4.6%4.6%6.2%—4.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.8%2.8%3.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.0%8.2%2.5%7.1%—3.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.2%5.8%5.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.8%9.4%1.4%1.5%—2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.4%3.5%1.6%0.1%—2.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%2.4%1.4%0.9%—2.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%4.3%1.9%1.2%—1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%5.5%1.1%0.2%1.6%0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%6.8%0.5%1.6%—0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%6.1%0.9%1.4%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%5.4%2.7%0.5%—0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%2.9%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.4%1.8%0.3%—0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%5.7%2.6%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%4.9%2.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single8%83.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
NWS forecast7%84.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%83.8°F2.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend5%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON5%82.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%85.1°F2.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%81.7°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗