KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

62%

60%

54%

38%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.60u

HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.40u · HRES −33.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	41.6%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	31.1%	75.6%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	39.6%	40.9%	13.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	35.0%	61.6%	39.9%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	56.8%	63.5%	38.0%	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	33.0%	69.2%	46.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	17.9%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	45.0%	30.8%	28.6%	—	30.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	39.8%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	57.8%	37.1%	32.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	47.3%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	69.5%	40.0%	46.3%	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	50.0%	39.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	51.0%	63.4%	22.5%	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	56.0%	53.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	53.1%	33.0%	40.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	63.5%	50.0%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	59.7%	47.8%	29.2%	5.9%	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	59.0%	35.7%	4.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	57.0%	51.2%	43.0%	26.0%	31.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	63.0%	60.7%	41.6%	—	28.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	62.3%	62.3%	36.5%	0.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	55.1%	56.4%	46.1%	—	28.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	51.3%	70.5%	40.7%	33.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	51.4%	47.2%	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	45.7%	62.8%	48.5%	41.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	87.4°F	1.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	87.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	85.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	82.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗