KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

62%

60%

54%

38%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.60u

HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.40u · HRES −33.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:06+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	61.8%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	61.8%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	61.8%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	61.8%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	61.8%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	65.3%	91.8%	59.6%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	65.3%	95.6%	59.6%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	65.3%	95.6%	59.6%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	59.6%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	59.5%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	59.5%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	59.5%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	59.5%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	48.1%	56.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	61.1%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	48.6%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	53.5%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	53.5%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	53.5%	95.6%	60.3%	37.6%	61.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	87.4°F	1.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	87.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	85.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	82.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗