KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

48%

44%

19%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.9¢Risks 28.85u

ICONNO 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.15u · ICON −71.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	40.1%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	72.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	20.8%	51.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.3%	62.4%	14.5%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	42.0%	64.3%	45.6%	—	34.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	35.1%	50.8%	31.6%	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	50.0%	57.1%	35.2%	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	15.8%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	37.7%	33.0%	37.7%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	45.7%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	33.0%	37.9%	36.3%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	56.3%	37.6%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	44.5%	39.1%	35.6%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.3%	35.2%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	49.0%	43.2%	26.3%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	40.1%	49.0%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	44.9%	37.8%	19.7%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	34.5%	27.1%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	35.1%	52.2%	26.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	48.9%	48.9%	1.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	32.0%	28.9%	22.4%	2.7%	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	22.5%	26.3%	21.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	19.1%	25.6%	26.6%	28.7%	11.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.1%	28.0%	24.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	16.5%	48.7%	26.2%	29.5%	7.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	5.0%	21.1%	26.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	6.8%	23.4%	23.4%	40.0%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	29.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	85.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	85.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗