KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

28%

18%

15%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.5¢Risks 16.55u

ICONNO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.45u · ICON −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	28.5%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	60.3%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	12.4%	38.0%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	29.2%	48.6%	7.9%	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	28.5%	50.0%	31.7%	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	22.2%	35.8%	19.5%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	34.5%	41.3%	21.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	7.9%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	23.2%	19.5%	23.2%	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	29.6%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	19.0%	22.8%	21.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	38.5%	22.2%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	27.4%	23.0%	20.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	27.6%	19.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	30.4%	25.5%	13.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	22.6%	29.9%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	25.9%	20.4%	8.6%	0.1%	6.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	17.6%	12.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	17.6%	31.1%	11.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.6%	27.6%	0.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.7%	12.7%	9.0%	0.6%	5.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.7%	10.8%	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	6.7%	10.0%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.4%	10.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	31%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	85.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	85.7°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	83.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗