KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

EPSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.75u · EPS −79.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	4.4%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	5.0%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	5.0%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	5.0%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	12.9%	0.2%	5.0%	26.3%	17.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	5.0%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	5.0%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	5.0%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	5.0%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	3.5%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	4.4%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	4.4%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	11.9%	0.2%	4.4%	20.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	4.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	4.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	4.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	4.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	11.2%	0.2%	4.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:46+00:00	11.2%	0.5%	3.4%	20.2%	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	83.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	85.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.7°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗