KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

EPSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.75u · EPS −79.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	29.6%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	48.6%	18.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	24.6%	11.5%	57.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	23.7%	10.0%	21.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	28.3%	16.4%	31.6%	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	15.9%	11.9%	26.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	49.2%	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	23.2%	27.2%	23.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	16.7%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	25.5%	21.4%	22.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	10.0%	20.9%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	15.4%	19.0%	21.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	14.3%	21.0%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	11.6%	14.7%	27.9%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	15.8%	11.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	12.3%	16.3%	33.0%	90.6%	38.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	17.6%	23.6%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	16.2%	7.7%	23.0%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	8.3%	8.3%	75.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	16.0%	18.3%	24.2%	68.0%	34.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	22.5%	19.1%	23.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	24.6%	18.2%	17.4%	15.9%	36.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	22.8%	15.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	83.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	85.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.7°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗