KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

64%

58%

54%

35%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

HRESNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.20u · HRES −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	49.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	60.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	87.5%	—	45.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	69.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	64.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	62.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	39.3%	40.0%	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	46.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	65.7%	37.6%	29.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	60.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	69.0%	74.6%	57.3%	36.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	61.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	62.7%	66.3%	44.7%	36.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	70.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	62.5%	49.2%	46.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	30.4%	49.2%	—	29.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	61.5%	32.2%	50.8%	29.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	50.9%	38.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	56.1%	29.1%	35.4%	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	71.3%	50.9%	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	38.2%	67.0%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	30.9%	47.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	51.0%	70.4%	24.0%	24.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.3%	54.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	85.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	83.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗