KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

54%

45%

43%

36%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

HRESNO 48.0¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.95u · HRES −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	38.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	48.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	79.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	57.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	51.3%	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	27.1%	27.7%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	33.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	52.1%	25.2%	18.9%	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	55.1%	61.6%	42.7%	23.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	47.7%	51.5%	30.3%	23.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	56.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	46.8%	33.7%	31.6%	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	17.9%	33.4%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	45.0%	18.9%	34.5%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	34.2%	23.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	38.8%	16.1%	20.8%	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	54.5%	33.4%	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	22.3%	49.1%	7.3%	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	16.5%	29.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	32.1%	51.9%	11.6%	11.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	19.0%	34.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	88.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	86.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	84.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	85.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	83.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗