KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

54%

45%

43%

36%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

HRESNO 48.0¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.95u · HRES −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	52.1%	82.7%	56.6%	23.4%	54.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	52.1%	82.7%	56.6%	23.4%	54.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	52.1%	82.7%	56.6%	23.4%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	52.1%	82.7%	56.6%	23.4%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	52.1%	82.7%	56.6%	23.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	47.9%	68.1%	56.3%	28.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	47.9%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	47.9%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	47.9%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	47.9%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	68.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	53.0%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	53.0%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	53.0%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	53.0%	68.1%	57.0%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	53.0%	43.0%	58.5%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	53.0%	43.0%	58.5%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	53.0%	43.0%	58.5%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	53.0%	43.0%	58.5%	28.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	51.5%	43.0%	58.5%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	58.5%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	58.5%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	58.5%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	51.5%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	43.4%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	68.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	43.4%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	68.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	43.4%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	68.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	43.4%	43.4%	56.8%	21.5%	68.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	43.4%	43.4%	56.8%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	43.4%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	43.4%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	43.4%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	44.9%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	44.9%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	44.9%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	44.9%	43.0%	54.3%	35.8%	68.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	88.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	86.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	84.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	85.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	83.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗