KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	19.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	58.1%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	32.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	26.8%	—	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	9.9%	10.2%	—	11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	25.7%	8.5%	5.6%	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	20.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	27.2%	33.0%	17.9%	7.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	20.5%	23.4%	10.0%	6.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	26.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	18.9%	11.1%	10.0%	4.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.1%	10.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	16.8%	4.3%	10.8%	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	10.3%	5.6%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	21.5%	9.2%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	17.2%	0.9%	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.7%	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.5%	17.7%	1.5%	1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	3.0%	8.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	83.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	83.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.2°F	1.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗