KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.25u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:30+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	28.3%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	28.3%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	28.3%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	28.3%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	28.3%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	25.5%	7.9%	26.8%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	25.5%	2.6%	26.8%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:15+00:00	25.5%	2.6%	26.8%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	24.9%	2.6%	26.8%	8.7%	38.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	25.2%	2.6%	27.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	29.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	29.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	29.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	29.1%	9.0%	38.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	29.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	29.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	29.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	29.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	26.4%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	26.4%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	22.6%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	53.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	25.2%	3.0%	27.1%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	25.2%	0.6%	26.0%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	25.2%	0.6%	26.0%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	25.2%	0.6%	26.0%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	25.2%	0.6%	26.0%	11.8%	51.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	24.1%	0.6%	26.0%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	26.0%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	26.0%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	26.0%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	24.1%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	52.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	46.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	46.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	46.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	24.7%	8.2%	46.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	18.3%	0.8%	24.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	18.3%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	18.3%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	18.3%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	22.7%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	24.0%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	24.0%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	19.2%	0.6%	24.0%	16.6%	46.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	17.7%	0.6%	24.0%	10.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	17.7%	0.6%	24.0%	10.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	17.7%	0.6%	24.0%	10.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	17.7%	0.6%	24.0%	10.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	17.7%	0.6%	24.0%	10.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	19.1%	10.7%	39.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	19.1%	10.7%	39.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	12.1%	0.2%	19.1%	10.7%	39.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	14.7%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	16.1%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	16.1%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	16.1%	0.2%	17.8%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	16.1%	0.2%	18.4%	13.5%	37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	13.0%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	13.0%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	13.0%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	13.0%	5.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	13.0%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	13.0%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	13.0%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	13.0%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	11.9%	6.9%	12.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	83.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	83.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.2°F	1.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗