KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

21%

17%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.50u · EPS −80.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	34.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	23.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	5.2%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	16.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	19.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	20.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	40.6%	40.0%	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	33.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	17.5%	41.6%	50.0%	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	20.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	14.8%	11.3%	23.2%	42.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	18.4%	16.0%	33.0%	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	12.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	17.9%	28.1%	30.1%	46.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	45.9%	27.7%	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	17.8%	43.4%	25.8%	46.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	25.3%	36.6%	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	20.8%	45.6%	38.8%	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	10.8%	24.2%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	34.7%	12.9%	61.8%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	41.5%	26.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	22.5%	10.2%	49.0%	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.3%	19.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	83.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	17%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗