KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

21%

17%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

EPSNO 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.50u · EPS −80.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	22.9%	0.1%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	9.9%	41.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	9.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	9.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	9.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	9.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	19.2%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	10.9%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	14.2%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	14.2%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	22.9%	0.2%	14.2%	37.4%	24.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	21.3%	0.2%	14.2%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	21.3%	0.2%	14.2%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	21.3%	0.2%	14.2%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	21.3%	0.2%	14.2%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	21.3%	0.2%	14.2%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	10.6%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	10.6%	38.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	10.6%	38.5%	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	83.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	17%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗