KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

17%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

EPSNO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.80u · EPS −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	66.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	53.5%	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	40.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	42.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	11.0%	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	31.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	13.7%	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	8.5%	30.0%	—	16.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	47.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	28.6%	30.5%	8.5%	14.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	22.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	35.7%	14.8%	18.4%	10.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	12.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	31.6%	15.5%	16.4%	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	9.5%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	21.2%	11.1%	14.5%	8.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	4.5%	12.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	5.6%	16.8%	2.3%	6.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	16.2%	19.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	8.3%	12.2%	14.6%	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.8%	10.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	84.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗