KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

18%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	55.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	41.8%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	30.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	6.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	7.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	21.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	4.3%	19.4%	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	34.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	18.0%	19.4%	4.2%	7.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	12.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	23.2%	7.9%	10.3%	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	6.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	19.5%	8.1%	8.7%	4.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	4.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	11.5%	5.3%	7.2%	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.8%	5.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.2%	8.3%	0.8%	2.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.8%	9.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.4%	5.4%	6.8%	1.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.5%	4.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	85.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	84.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.5°F	1.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗