KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

18%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:43+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	23.4%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	23.4%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	23.4%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	23.4%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	25.4%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	29.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	22.2%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	47.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:23+00:00	22.2%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	47.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	22.2%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	47.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	22.2%	2.0%	22.8%	8.4%	47.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	22.2%	2.0%	22.8%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	22.2%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	22.2%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	22.2%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	24.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	21.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	21.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	21.7%	1.5%	21.6%	15.3%	47.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	19.8%	1.5%	21.6%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	19.8%	1.5%	21.6%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	19.8%	1.5%	21.6%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	19.8%	1.5%	21.6%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	19.8%	1.5%	21.6%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	19.0%	8.7%	48.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	19.0%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	22.1%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	22.1%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	22.1%	8.4%	48.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	22.1%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	22.1%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	22.1%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	22.1%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	22.1%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	17.9%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	18.5%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	18.5%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	18.5%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	21.9%	0.2%	18.5%	11.0%	45.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	16.6%	0.2%	18.5%	8.9%	29.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	16.6%	0.2%	18.5%	8.9%	29.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	16.6%	0.2%	18.5%	8.9%	29.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	16.6%	0.2%	18.5%	8.9%	29.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	16.6%	0.2%	18.5%	8.9%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	85.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	84.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.5°F	1.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗