KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

24%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

EPSNO 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.00u · EPS −83.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	5.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	10.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	16.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	48.7%	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	41.6%	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	50.7%	20.3%	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	19.9%	18.4%	48.6%	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	13.6%	33.7%	28.5%	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	14.6%	30.3%	28.9%	43.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	40.0%	—	43.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	21.2%	35.2%	29.5%	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	52.4%	31.9%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	46.7%	23.8%	62.3%	42.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	23.3%	19.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	35.4%	27.7%	24.1%	46.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	28.7%	30.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 79°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-LE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗