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KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
ICON
24%
AIFS
12%
WN2
9%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 17.0¢Risks 17.00u
VS
EPSNO 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.00u · EPS −83.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 10:3510-19 12:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:0012.4%0.1%11.7%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0012.4%0.1%11.7%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0012.4%0.1%11.7%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0012.4%0.1%11.7%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0012.4%0.1%11.7%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0012.4%0.3%8.6%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0012.4%0.3%8.6%33.7%24.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0012.4%0.3%8.6%33.7%24.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES34%81.6°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON24%82.9°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%84.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single12%84.8°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%84.6°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend6%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%84.2°F1.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 79°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-LE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗