KMIA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

52%

49%

49%

21%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.9¢Risks 45.95u

HRESNO 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.05u · HRES −54.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	39.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	37.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	58.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	64.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	64.0%	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	43.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	21.3%	60.7%	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	43.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	63.1%	59.1%	28.6%	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	57.3%	50.7%	28.5%	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	34.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	48.5%	28.3%	11.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	44.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	28.8%	40.5%	34.5%	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.6%	33.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	84.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	83.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261024-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗