KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 10.80u

EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 89.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.20u · EPS −89.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	10.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	33.0%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	18.9%	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	5.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.4%	12.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	10.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.5%	9.6%	0.5%	4.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.1%	9.0%	2.7%	3.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	7.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	83.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	81.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	83.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	80.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.1°F	1.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗