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KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
21%
HRES
12%
WN2
10%
AIFS
5%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 10.80u
VS
EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 89.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.20u · EPS −89.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00ICON: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00ICON: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 20.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0010-18 08:0110-19 06:0210-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:08+00:0014.4%0.7%15.3%10.5%20.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0014.4%0.7%15.3%10.5%20.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0014.4%0.7%15.3%10.5%20.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0014.4%0.7%15.3%10.5%20.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:0014.4%0.7%15.3%10.5%20.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:0017.8%0.7%10.5%5.0%30.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0017.8%0.7%10.5%5.0%30.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0017.8%0.7%10.5%5.0%30.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:004.8%0.7%10.5%11.6%20.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:004.8%0.7%10.5%11.6%20.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:004.8%0.7%10.5%11.6%20.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:004.8%0.7%10.5%11.6%20.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:004.8%0.7%10.5%11.6%20.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON21%83.7°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%81.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%83.1°F5.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single5%80.5°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend1%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%85.1°F1.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗