KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

92%

92%

88%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.0¢Risks 23.25u

AIFSNO 7.0¢Risks 1.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.75u · AIFS −1.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	25.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	62.1%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	54.8%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	23.4%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	86.8%	50.0%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	47.9%	7.4%	83.4%	—	73.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	3.9%	94.7%	—	66.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	84.0%	15.5%	95.8%	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	88.5%	28.8%	64.8%	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	97.8%	33.0%	94.4%	—	79.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	93.6%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	91.7%	49.1%	85.4%	—	77.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	95.0%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	87.1%	72.6%	84.0%	—	73.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	84.6%	74.7%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	87.9%	73.7%	78.2%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	86.5%	70.1%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	91.4%	67.0%	82.4%	—	69.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	90.4%	67.4%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	91.5%	69.9%	81.7%	2.4%	75.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	91.3%	63.3%	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	93.2%	66.9%	91.5%	—	79.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	90.3%	73.7%	84.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	84.9%	66.9%	89.4%	47.5%	83.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.9%	62.7%	86.5%	—	83.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	80.9%	69.3%	89.9%	47.3%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	85.3%	72.4%	85.3%	—	77.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	86.2%	79.8%	79.8%	64.2%	73.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	85.6%	83.8%	86.4%	—	74.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	86.6%	88.3%	89.0%	71.0%	73.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	94.7%	92.7%	95.1%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	60.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
ICON	93%	61.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0052
IFS Ensemble	92%	58.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0061
IFS HRES	92%	60.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0064
AIFS Single	88%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0142
National Blend	61%	54.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗