KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

92%

92%

88%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.0¢Risks 23.25u

AIFSNO 7.0¢Risks 1.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.75u · AIFS −1.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:39+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	59.6%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	59.6%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	59.6%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	70.1%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	70.1%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	56.8%	80.4%	70.1%	90.8%	66.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	87.2%	80.4%	70.1%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	87.2%	80.4%	70.1%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	87.2%	80.4%	70.1%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	87.2%	80.4%	70.1%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	87.2%	80.4%	70.1%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	87.1%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	94.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	95.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	95.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	95.3%	91.3%	89.3%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	95.3%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	95.3%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	95.3%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	95.3%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	95.3%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	94.7%	80.4%	98.0%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	94.7%	92.2%	98.0%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	94.7%	92.2%	98.0%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	88.2%	92.2%	98.0%	92.0%	92.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	88.1%	92.2%	97.9%	92.0%	92.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	60.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
ICON	93%	61.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0052
IFS Ensemble	92%	58.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0061
IFS HRES	92%	60.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0064
AIFS Single	88%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0142
National Blend	61%	54.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1544
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗